CBS Sports has divided the NFL into five tiers roughly a quarter of the way through the season. It put the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks in its top group, which it calls the inner circle "for now." Teams within each tier are listed alphabetically, so the piece doesn't rank them against each other inside a group.
CBS framed the exercise as educated guesswork. It acknowledged that teams still have time to continue as they have or to reverse course.
The Inner Circle and the Next Rung
Buffalo is described as excellent apart from last week's loss to the Patriots. CBS wants to watch Jim Leonhard's defense but expects the offense to bounce back. Jacksonville gets the same kind of pass: apart from the second half against Denver, the Jaguars have looked elite, and CBS treats that half as an exception.
Kansas City may need receiver help after injuries to Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, CBS wrote. It credited Kenneth Walker III with lifting the offense and said Steve Spagnuolo's defense always rounds into playoff form eventually. On the Rams, CBS said they have alternated between ordinary stretches and the team it expected, but it sees as high a two-way upside as anyone if they stay healthy.
The second tier, "probably pretty good," holds the Ravens, Bears, Bengals, Cowboys and Vikings. CBS is comfortable with Baltimore as long as Lamar Jackson's injury isn't long-term, and it pointed to how strong the team has looked with Zay Flowers on the field. Chicago has run the ball on everyone but Minnesota and should get Caleb Williams back soon. Cincinnati's outlook hinges on injuries to Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor).
Dallas and Minnesota are mirror images in CBS's view. The Cowboys' defense looks as bad as ever, but their 3.39 points per drive would be the best mark in the NFL since 2000. The Vikings have a defense strong enough to cover for an offense CBS called less than ordinary.
The Middle and the Doubters
The third tier, "probably about average," includes the Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, Lions, Raiders, Patriots and Eagles. Atlanta has benefited from what CBS called the league's most surprising pass rush, and its offense has looked strong since Michael Penix returned. Carolina looks good behind Bryce Young, though defensive injuries could hurt until its top two cornerbacks are back. Denver will be without Patrick Surtain II and Pat Bryant for a while.
The Raiders' only loss is a three-point defeat to the Chiefs, but their wins came against the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints. CBS wants more evidence before moving them up. New England, it said, has not lit the world on fire but looked good in beating Buffalo.
The fourth tier, "probably not that good," is the largest and runs from 0-4 teams to a 3-1 team. CBS argues that underlying performance or schedule suggests these teams won't be real contenders. Cleveland is 3-1, but each win required a game-winning score in the final five minutes. The Giants are also 3-1, but their last two wins with Jameis Winston came against the Titans and Cardinals. Houston is 0-4 and can't run the ball. Green Bay's offensive line looks like a disaster, CBS said, and its defense is eminently beatable without Micah Parsons.
The Chargers were singled out as the NFL's most disappointing team. Tampa is dealing with a backup quarterback situation for several weeks, and CBS suggested the Bucs could be out of the picture before Baker Mayfield returns, even in the NFC South.
The Bottom Tier
The fifth tier, "the dregs," has two teams. CBS described them as really, really bad and said they have the least hope. It noted they are not the only 0-4 teams, which fits Houston's placement one tier up.
Reporting sources: CBS Sports Headlines, “Ranking all 32 NFL teams into tiers: 49ers among the elite, but some teams not as good as they seem”.