CBS Sports has put together its Week 5 upset alert, and the premise is that no favorite is safe. Over the last two weeks, 23 games have been decided by one score, which CBS Sports said ties the record for the most in any two-week span in league history.
The outlet said its Week 4 version correctly flagged the Texans, Lions and Saints as vulnerable, and the Cowboys, Panthers and Falcons all won as underdogs. For Week 5 it points to three home underdogs and two AFC East favorites playing at home. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook, per CBS Sports.
Patriots Face a Possible Letdown
The Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs at the Patriots, with moneyline odds of +160, in a 1 p.m. ET game at Gillette Stadium. New England is 2-2 after beating the Bills, which CBS Sports called its biggest win of the season. The outlet sees a letdown risk for the Patriots after that result. The Raiders, whose 3-0 start ended against the Chiefs, are not viewed as a fluke.
The case rests on pressure. CBS Sports lists Las Vegas sixth in the league in pressure rate (42.5%) and fifth in sack rate (8.7%). It says Drake Maye handled Buffalo's pressure far better last week but has struggled overall when pressured and has turned the ball over. Kirk Cousins is tied for the league lead with 11 passing touchdowns.
Packers and Browns at Home and on Rest
The Bears are 3-point favorites at the Packers, who are +130 on the moneyline. CBS Sports calls it a make-or-break game for Green Bay, since a loss would leave the Packers 2-3 and 0-2 in the NFC North. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, so Tyson Bagent is set to start at quarterback. Kyle Monangi (thumb) and D'Andre Swift (knee, hip) missed Wednesday's practice. Chicago leads the league at 196.3 rushing yards per game, and under Ben Johnson it is 2-5 against its division and 12-2 against everyone else.
The Browns are 2.5-point underdogs at the Jets, at +110. Cleveland has won three straight and played last Thursday, so it has extra rest. CBS Sports says Deshaun Watson has produced three game-winning drives in that run. The Jets have lost three in a row since winning their opener. Their defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed per game (436.5), and their pressure rate ranks 28th. New York is also 0-12 in its last 12 games against teams above .500.
Vikings and Lions Under Scrutiny
The Vikings are 1.5-point favorites at the Saints, who are +105. Minnesota is 4-0, but CBS Sports notes that its 262.8 yards per game is the third-fewest for any team through a 4-0 start since 1940. It says Kyler Murray ranks 24th in passer rating among 28 quarterbacks with at least 70 attempts. The Vikings' strength is a defense that allows a league-low 12.8 points per game and blitzes at a league-high 71% rate. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has a 105.8 passer rating against the blitz, which ranks 11th among quarterbacks. New Orleans arrives off a 45-24 Monday night loss to the Falcons.
In the 4:25 p.m. ET window, the Lions are 5.5-point favorites at the Cardinals, who are +210. CBS Sports argues Detroit cannot be trusted as a road favorite with its current defense. The Panthers scored 32 points and passed for 329 yards against it, with Tetairoa McMillan catching 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions allow a league-worst 423.8 total yards per game and 31.8 points per game, the second-worst mark.
Why It Matters
The through-line in CBS Sports' picks is that each favorite has a specific, measurable weakness: a pass rush, a banged-up offense, a leaky defense. Those numbers, plus a recent run of one-score games, are the basis for treating the spreads with caution this weekend.
Reporting sources: CBS Sports Headlines, “NFL Week 5 upset alert: Why these five favorites could easily lose, including the Patriots”.
