With the midterms days away, the national numbers look grim for Republicans. Donald Trump's approval rating is at its lowest ever, NPR's Mara Liasson reported, and 71% of voters now call gas unaffordable in the Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll, up 43% from February. Trump's approval on the economy has slid from 45% in February to under 30%.
That is the backdrop Democrats are campaigning against, and they are leaning into it. Campaigning in Ohio for Democrats this weekend, former President Barack Obama mocked Trump's gilded makeover of the White House: "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory."
Why the generic ballot can mislead
Still, the headline polling deserves caution. The generic congressional ballot, which asks whether voters prefer an unnamed Democrat or Republican for the House, shows Democrats ahead by 8 to 11 points nationally. But Liasson noted that aggressive gerrymandering has left only about a dozen genuinely competitive districts, those decided by 5 points or less in the last presidential race. In polling of just those seats, Democrats lead by only 2 or 3 points.
The takeaway: anger at Trump and the cost of living may hand Democrats the House, but the size of any majority will be settled in a few close contests, not by the national mood. Whether disillusioned former Trump voters actually turn out for Democrats is something the polls cannot yet show.
A Senate map built on red ground
In the Senate, Republicans are on defense, but the races that will decide control, in Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, are all toss-ups in states Trump carried by an average of 13 points in 2024. To win, Democrats need more than a motivated base; they must persuade lifelong Republican voters to switch.
Alaska shows how the administration is responding. Democrat Mary Peltola has been running a few points ahead of Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, and the Justice Department has asked a federal court to block certification if Sullivan narrowly loses, arguing voters could confuse him with another candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Alaska's courts have already allowed both names on the ballot, and election experts say the unprecedented suit is unlikely to succeed because the Constitution gives states control over how elections are run.
In Ohio, meanwhile, Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is running an ad featuring the mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, calling her daughter a liar. Ohio's governor called the ad plain wrong; Trump has praised it. That split may be the clearest test this cycle of whether Trump-style campaigning works for anyone but Trump.
Reporting sources: NPR Topics: Politics, “Politics chat: The polls show a Democratic sweep in the midterms. Can you trust them?”.